Weather Blog

Olivia now a tropical depression moving away from Hawaii

Editor's Note: Olivia has weakened to a tropical depression and is moving away from the state. While Hawaii is still dealing with Olivia's lingering rain bands, the storm is no longer considered a major threat to the islands, and therefore this post will no longer be updated.

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Olivia is now a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

It continues to travel away from the islands, though heavy rain lingers.

However moisture associated with the storm is still sitting over the islands and could linger for another day.

The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 18 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday with a slight decrease in forward speed, followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday. Olivia, or its remnant low, is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday evening. Olivia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low late Thursday night or Friday.

The center of Tropical Storm Olivia made a historic landfall at about 9:10 a.m., near Kahakuloa on the windward coast of the West Maui Mountains. This is about 10 miles northwest of Kahului. This is the first tropical storm to make landfall in recorded history. Records of storms go back to the 1950s.

Olivia then made a second landfall at about 9:54 a.m. on the northeast coast of Lanai, about 6 miles north-northeast of Lanai City.

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Location: 20.0N 160.6W


Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH...55 KM/H

Present Movement: WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

Hazards affecting land

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall will likely persist through Thursday night. Moisture associated with Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in some areas, with isolated amounts of up to 15 inches, especially over higher terrain. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Nine inches of rain have already fallen over parts of Maui.

SURF: Large swells generated by Olivia will impact parts of the main Hawaiian Islands tonight. This will result in dangerous surf along east facing shores.

The exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Olivia continues to track rapidly away from the main Hawaiian Islands this evening. A few thunderstorms and towering cumulus clouds continue to pop up in the northeast quadrant far away from the LLCC, but the coverage was not great enough to allow any of the fix agencies to classify Olivia. Therefore, the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate was 2.0/30 kt from PHFO and JTWC. The UW-CIMSS ADT was also 2.0/30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity will be lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Olivia is expected to remain a tropical depression through Thursday evening. We continue to indicate it will become a post-tropical remnant low starting Thursday night or Friday.

Olivia has been able to stabilize its motion now that it has moved far away from the mountainous terrain of the main Hawaiian Islands, which likely caused much of the erratic motion observed earlier today. The initial motion for this advisory is 255/16 kt. The LLCC is being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A general west-southwest motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is forecast through early Thursday. Olivia will then turn toward the west, and then the west-northwest as the system increasingly interacts with an upper-level low responsible for the wind shear. The latest track forecast is close to the previous through 36 hours. After that, the track of the depression, or its remnant low, has been adjusted to the right of the previous forecast. This is close to the TVCE and HCCA, and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.

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