Shower activity forecast to increase late Tuesday through Thursday

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HONOLULU (KHON2) – High pressure far northeast of the islands continues to drive moderate to breezy trades across local waters this afternoon, while an upper ridge keeps our airmass stable.

Satellite and radar data show scattered to patchy broken low clouds with isolated showers mainly across windward areas. Models depict this pattern holding into Tuesday.

Showers will increase Tuesday night through Thursday as the upper ridge shifts west of the area and is replaced by an upper low.

Trades will trend down, potentially enough for a land and sea breeze regime to become established in some areas, as a dissipating front approaches from the north.

Models suggest this front will weaken into a broad surface trough as it reaches the islands Wednesday, then drift west of the islands by Thursday night.

The front, combined with the upper low and increased moisture, will support better shower coverage Wednesday through Thursday, especially through the afternoon and evening periods.

Daytime heating, combined with a relatively cool pool aloft, may be enough added instability to trigger a thunderstorm or two.

Expect a return to a more typical trade wind weather pattern as the upper low moves west of the state and the atmosphere stabilizes late this week.

Trades may briefly shift out of a more east to southeast direction over the weekend.

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