EDITOR’S NOTE: This is an archive post of KHON2’s ongoing Hurricane Olivia coverage. Click here to view the most recent update.
Tropical Storm Olivia has maintained its strength with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph with higher gusts.
However, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Olivia should begin another trend of weakening while moving southwest toward the islands.
The forecast track also shifted slightly south, which put a larger area under the cone of uncertainty.
Olivia is still expected to cross somewhere between Oahu and Hawaii Island early Wednesday morning with winds near 50 mph with higher gusts.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
Watches and Warnings
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Oahu, Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe, and Hawaii County.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Kauai and Niihau.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours.
Keep in mind, changes will occur in forecast track and intensity as the storm gets closer. Download our KHON2 News mobile app and turn on the push alert notifications to get the very latest.
Location: 22.0N 150.1W
- ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
- ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 MPH…110 KM/H
Present Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
Hazards affecting land
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over Maui County and the Big Island starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over Oahu starting late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Kauai County starting Wednesday afternoon or evening.
RAINFALL: Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
SURF: Large swells generated by Olivia will impact the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. This will cause surf to build, mainly along exposed east facing shores, and surf may become damaging.
Hurricane Hunters from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are again penetrating Olivia’s core this evening, and found the low-level center further east than anticipated. Some conflicting data
exists as to the current intensity, as the central pressure has risen, but winds in the northwest quadrant were stronger than earlier today. A blend of the data supports maintaining the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 280/8 kt, with Olivia still being steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the distant northeast. Track guidance continues to indicate that a mid-level ridge building to the northwest of Olivia will induce a motion toward the west and west-southwest, with this expected to
begin on Tuesday. At 72 hours and beyond, an upper level low is expected to develop between the ridge and Olivia, imparting a west-northwest motion on the tropical cyclone. The updated track
forecast is shifted just slightly to the south of the previous, mostly after day 2, so the track forecast near the islands has changed little. Notable along-track differences between the GFS and ECMWF/HWRF exist, with the ECMWF/HWRF continuing to bring Olivia over the islands about 6-12 hours faster. The official forecast is on the north side of the guidance envelope, is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE, with the short-term forward speed a blend of the GFS and ECMWF/HWRF.
Shear is expected to increase over the next 24 to 48 hours while SSTs increase to greater than 28C. The shear is expected to induce slow but steady weakening, and the updated intensity forecast is
close to the previous and closely follows the multi-model intensity consensus IVCN.
1. Resist the temptation to make comparisons between Lane and Olivia. Although Lane was a stronger tropical cyclone near the islands, it did not bring direct core impacts to the state. In some areas, Olivia could bring significantly worse impacts than those brought by Lane. Those impacts could include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and large and dangerous surf.
2. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and intensity when planning for Olivia. Regardless of the track that Olivia takes as it approaches the islands, significant impacts can be expected away from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced wind gusts and rainfall.