EDITOR’S NOTE: This is an archive post of KHON2’s ongoing Lane coverage. Click here to view the most recent update.
Lane has now weakened to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph.
The storm is now moving toward the northwest and should turn west with an increase in forward speed over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will pass south of Kauai on Saturday.
“This is the weakening we’ve been hoping for and anticipating,” said John Bravender, warning coordination meterologist. “Normally, a hurricane will weaken gradually. Lane had been a very persistent hurricane. Despite increasing wind shear, it had maintained its strength for a long time, and moved northward into an increasingly hostile environment with very strong wind shear. It appears that wind shear finally caught up to it, and over the course of several hours this morning, the core convention weakened significantly.”
“It will continue to weaken as it moves away from the state. It has lost its vertical integrity, so it doesn’t have that strong vertical structure anymore, it’s just kind of low-level circulation getting picked up by the trade winds, moving away from the state,” said meteorologist Eric Lau.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lane may become a remnant low later Saturday or Sunday.
Still, Lane poses a threat to the islands with tropical storm force winds, heavy rains, and the potential for flash flooding. Hawaii island remains inundated with heavy rain with 20 to 30 inches of rainfall recorded over the past 72 hours.
“We’ve seen some of the impacts that heavy, intense rain has caused already, and that threat will continue,” Bravender said.
“We still have all this abundant moisture lingering over the area, so we can’t still rule out the potential for heavy rainfall through tonight,” Lau said. Thunderstorms from Lane “could potentially make its way closer to shore, definitely bring us some heavy rainfall if any of these thunderstorms make it on shore.”
- 19.2N 158.4W
- ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
- ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
The Hurricane Warning for Oahu, Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
Therefore, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Oahu, Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe, and Hawaii County.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near rain bands that will affect Oahu, Maui County, and the Big Island tonight into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Kauai starting Saturday.
RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall remains possible into the weekend, which could lead to additional flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts up to 40 inches are possible, mainly on the windward side of the Big Island where over 30 inches of rain has already fallen in some areas.
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend. These swells will produce high surf along exposed south and east shorelines through Saturday.
Related Story: Ready for Disaster
It took awhile…but once the 35 to 40 kt of shear began to impact the core convection from Lane, the battle ended quickly. A very helpful 89 GHz microwave pass over Lane around 0000 UTC showed the circulation center was now mainly comprised of low and mid level clouds completely detached from the remaining pockets of deep convection to the northeast of the center. Even a blend of the Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates appeared to be too generous, based on the very rapid degradation of the cloud pattern and the WSR-88D radar velocities. Settled on 60 kt for the current intensity.
The new motion estimate is 315/3, but this is a bit uncertain until we have more time to examine this change. The low level circulation of Lane is expected to continue to weaken in the face of continued strong shear, and driven on a westward track by the low level flow. The track guidance is in better agreement than I’ve seen it in awhile. If it survives long enough, the global models show Lane may get a new lease on life as an extratropical low over the Northwest Hawaiian Islands. In any case, we will be happy to get rid of the tropical cyclone in our vicinity. Until then, people should be mindful of additional impacts that can still occur until Lane departs.
1. Rainbands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane can still bring persistent, flooding rainfall and damaging winds. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center. Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings.