EDITOR’S NOTE: This is an archive post of KHON2’s ongoing Lane coverage. Click here to view the most recent update.
Lingering moisture associated with Tropical Storm Lane will produce heavy rainfall over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands through Sunday, which could lead to additional flash flooding and landslides.
The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued flood advisories for Maui and Hawaii island.
On Maui at 10:30 p.m. Saturday, radar indicated moderate to locally heavy rain along the windward slopes of east Maui, with estimated rainfall rates up to one inch per hour. Rainfall is likely to continue across the same area overnight. Heavier rains may redevelop over the windward slopes of the West Maui Mountains during the next couple of hours as well.
On the Big Island at 10:19 p.m. Saturday, radar indicated moderate to locally heavy rain over the South Hilo, Puna and Kau districts. Rainfall rates near one inch per hour are occurring in the lower Puna district, and a large area of moderate rain is moving into the Kau district from Paauau to South Point. Rain is likely to continue across much of the advisory area through the night, and more widespread heavy rains may redevelop at any time.
The center of Tropical Storm Lane was located about 220 miles south-southwest of Lihue at 11:00 p.m. Lane is moving toward the west near 8 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue into Monday. A brief slowing in forward motion is expected Monday night as Lane makes a turn toward the northwest.
Lane is then expected to accelerate northwestward by Tuesday as it transitions to an extratropical low.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lane is expected to become a post-tropical low on Monday. In a couple of days, Lane may develop into a gale force extratropical low as it passes over portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
- 19.3N 161.2W
- ABOUT 255 MI…410 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
- ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
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After a burst of deep convection that started late last night and continued through this morning, the low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Lane became exposed this afternoon. The thunderstorms were quickly sheared away from the center as Lane is embedded in an area characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical wind shear. Subjective Dvorak Data-T numbers were unavailable due to the lack of convection near the center, but current intensities ranged from 2.0/30 kt to 2.5/35 kt. Given that we’ve seen these recently-exposed LLCCs produce tropical-storm-force winds in the past, the initial intensity is estimated to be 35 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion for this advisory is 260/7 kt. Lane is being driven westward by the low-level trade wind flow supplied by a surface high to the distant northeast. Track guidance is in good agreement in the short term, with Lane tracking generally toward the west through 36 hours. Thereafter, guidance spread increases somewhat but not dramatically, and generally shows a brief slowing in forward speed before an accelerated motion toward the northwest evolves. This occurs as Lane interacts with a developing mid-level low to its west. The updated track forecast is very close to the previous, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.
With deep convection absent near Lane’s center for several hours, the clock is ticking on Lane’s status as a tropical cyclone. While the updated forecast anticipates that brief deep convective pulses will occasionally occur in association with Lane, these are not expected to develop over the center, and Lane is now expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by late Sunday. Thereafter, Lane is expected to track toward the west as a weak post-tropical remnant low. Assuming Lane survives as a coherent feature, it is then expected to interact with a developing low aloft and transition to an extratropical low by Tuesday/Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around the middle of the week.
Around 8 pm HST, Lane passed very close to NOAA buoy 51003, which reported a minimum pressure of 1005 mb and seas just below 12 feet. These data were used to fine tune the analysis.