Norman continues to weaken as it moves northeast while Olivia’s cone of uncertainty grows

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Hurricane Norman is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm later today as it moves away from the islands.

Norman is still generating a large swell across the main Hawaiian Islands today, causing large and potentially dangerous surf along east facing shores. The surf will diminish tonight.

It is still expected to bring hot, sticky weather to the islands, along with increased windward showers and elevated surf for east-facing shores.

Still moving toward us is Hurricane Olivia. While it’s still far to the east, over 1,400 miles away, the current track doesn’t look good.

As of 5 a.m., Olivia’s cone of uncertainty now encompasses Hawaii island, all of Maui County, and a portion of Oahu, This means the storm has the potential to move within the area. Building high pressure will keep Olivia on a westward track.

Olivia has weakened overnight, but still remains a category 3 hurricane with winds near 115 mph, down from 125 mph Thursday. It is expected to continue this gradual weakening trend as it crosses into the Central Pacific on Saturday.

As Olivia approaches the islands, the strength of the system could be anywhere from a strong tropical storm to a weak category 1 hurricane. However, the current forecast has Olivia weakening to a tropical storm Tuesday morning.

The timeline for the possible closest point of approach will be sometime early Wednesday morning to late Wednesday afternoon. Some forecast models have it moving slightly quicker and over the islands early Wednesday morning near Oahu, while other models have it near the Big Island on Wednesday afternoon.

While it’s too early to know the exact details, residents should prepare for heavy rain and flooding, strong tropical storm force winds, and large storm surge and surf. 

Keep in mind, changes will occur in forecast track and intensity as the storm gets closer.

HURRICANE OLIVIA

The center of Hurricane Olivia was located about 1,465 miles east of Hilo. Olivia is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, and this general motion is forecast to continue through Saturday.

A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night or Sunday.Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph with higher gusts. Olivia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A slow weakening trend is expected during the next few days.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

HURRICANE NORMAN

The center of Hurricane Norman was located about 280 miles northeast of Hilo. Norman is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, becoming north-northwest on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

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