At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Lester was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 161.5 West. Lester is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. Lester is forecast to gradually turn toward the north at a slower speed Monday night and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
Summary information:
- Location: 26.6N 161.5W
about 430 mi NNW of Honolulu
about 345 mi NNW of Lihue
- Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph
- Present movement: NW or 315 degrees at 17 mph
- Minimum central pressure: 1002 mb
Did You Know: The Central Pacific Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for Oahu at 5 p.m. on Sept. 1. It’s the first time Oahu has been under a hurricane watch since 1982 for Hurricane Iwa.
A quick review of our archive indicates this is most likely the first Hurricane Watch for Oahu since 1982 with Hurricane Iwa.— NWSHonolulu (@NWSHonolulu) September 2, 2016
Discussion:
The satellite representation of Lester is less impressive than earlier today with the low level center once again removed from the deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 3.0/45 kt PHFO and 2.5/35 kt from SAB and JTWC. Based on the current appearance of Lester in satellite imagery and these intensity estimates, we have lowered the intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion for this advisory is 315/15 kt. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered, taking Lester along a northwestward path through about 24 hours, followed by gradual slowing and a northward turn during the 36 to 48 hour time frame. Lester is then forecast to accelerate northeast on days 3 through 5. Lester is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge north of latitude 30N. However, a weakness in this ridge due to an upper level trough northwest of system is causing Lester to move northwestward. The latest forecast track closely follows the previous one, and lies close to consensus and reliable model guidance. The Ocean Prediction Center was coordinated with for the 72, 96 and 120 hour positions.
Strong southwesterly wind shear continues over the system with the UW-CIMSS estimate at 33 kt while the SHIPS estimate is 23 kt. Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the system will remain near or at its current intensity through 48 hours with slow weakening on days 3 through 5 mainly due to cooler water and extra-tropical transition. The latest intensity forecast follows along with this, keeping the system at it present intensity through 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, Lester is forecast to transition to an extra-tropical gale low over the North Pacific in around 72 hours. Lester is then forecast to gradually weaken on days 4 and 5. This intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS and the IVCN consensus guidance.
