Hurricane Olivia update: Sept. 10, 2018 at 2 a.m. HST

News

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Maximum sustained winds measured by hurricane hunter aircraft are near 85 mph with higher gusts.

Olivia is still a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Little change in strength is forecast through late Monday, with gradual weakening possible starting some time on Tuesday.

Olivia is moving toward the west near 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through early Monday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest starting late Monday. This west-southwest motion is expected to continue through Tuesday evening.

On this forecast track, tropical storm conditions are possible over some parts of Hawaii starting Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles.

Watches and Warnings

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Oahu, Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe, and Hawaii County.

A tropical storm warning may be required for some areas that are in the watch area on Monday.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests on Kauai and Niihau should monitor the progress of Olivia.

Keep in mind, changes will occur in forecast track and intensity as the storm gets closer. Download our KHON2 News mobile app and turn on the push alert notifications to get the very latest.

Location: 21.7N 147.6W

  • ABOUT 500 MI: 805 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
  • ABOUT 655 MI: 1055 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII

Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH…140 KM/H
Present Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…16 KM/H

Hazards affecting land

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible, especially over windward sides of Maui and the Big Island. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells generated by Olivia will spread from east to west across the Hawaiian Islands early this week. This will cause surf to build along exposed east facing shorelines as Olivia approaches. This surf may become damaging across parts of the state.

Olivia’s small eye surrounded by cold cloud tops is evident in infrared satellite imagery this evening. The U.S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron aircraft just completed a mission sampling the inner core and outer winds of Olivia. They found the pressure was lower and the surface winds stronger than their previous mission Sunday morning. Their SFMR, flight-level and dropsonde measurements suggested the maximum winds are near 75 kt. In addition, the satellite fix agencies (JTWC, SAB, and HFO) provided unanimous subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 4.6/77 kt. Based on all of this information, we are increasing the initial intensity to 75 kt for this advisory.

Olivia continues to move due west, but has slowed slightly, so the current motion is 270/8 kt. This motion is being induced by a deep layer ridge to the north and northwest of the tropical cyclone. In 12 to 24 hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and build southward ahead of Olivia, forcing the tropical cyclone to shift toward a west-southwest track. This motion is expected to continue through day 4. The track guidance appears to be more tightly clustered through 48 hours now, but the spread increases from days 3 through 5. The current forecast track is very close to the previous, except it is slightly slower during the first 72 hours. This closely follows the latest TVCE, FSSE, GFEX and HCCA guidance. Again, since there remains some spread in the track guidance, this emphasizes the uncertainty in our track forecast. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track of Olivia’s center across the islands.

Vertical wind shear remains relatively weak in the vicinity of Olivia. But water temperatures are expected to increase as it moves westward. In addition, CIRA Ocean Heat Content values will rise along the forecast track. Therefore, Olivia will likely remain a hurricane through 36 hours. After that increasing vertical wind shear is forecast to take its toll on Olivia, so that it may be a strong tropical storm within 48 hours. Additional slow weakening is expected to persist during days 3 through 5. The latest forecast is close to the IVCN and CTCI. Note that based on the latest track and intensity along with the wind speed probabilities, Tropical storm warnings will likely be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Monday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and intensity when planning for Olivia. Persons on all of the main Hawaiian Islands should continue preparing for the likelihood of direct impacts from this system Monday and early Tuesday. Those impacts could include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds, large and dangerous surf, and storm surge.

2.  Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes as it approaches the islands, significant effects often extend far from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.

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