Hurricane Lane update: Aug. 24, 2018 at 8 a.m. HST

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EDITOR’S NOTE: This is an archive post of KHON2’s ongoing Hurricane Lane coverage. Click here to view the most recent update.

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Hurricane Lane continues to weaken as it slowly creeps north toward the Hawaiian Islands. Lane is about 170 miles south of Honolulu which is 140 miles west-southwest of Kailua-Kona.

As of 8 a.m. HST, Lane is a category 2 storm with 105 mph winds.

The storm is forecast to continue slowly moving north toward the island chain through Saturday before making a sharp left turn to the west. Lane will continue to weaken as it encounters stronger wind shear.

Lane is moving north at 2 mph.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center of Lane and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Heavy rain will continue to batter Hawaii through the weekend. Tropical storm-force wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible along with increased wave activity. Conditions will improve Sunday and early next week.

SUMMARY INFORMATION

LOCATION:

  • 18.8N 158.0W
  • ABOUT 170 MI: 274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
  • ABOUT 140 MI: 225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII​​​​

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…170 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…3 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…964 MB…28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Oahu and Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Kauai County.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40 inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30 inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the windward side of the Big Island.

SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


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Hurricane Lane is beginning to show some signs of slow weakening due to wind shear of over 20 knots from the southwest according to the SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in satellite imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile conditions. Radar reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at Molokai and Kohala show the center is becoming elongated in a north to south direction. The latest satellite intensity estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.5/102 knots, while the UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.7/107 knots. The current intensity is held at 105 kt based on these estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 350/5 knots, which shows a northward turn has occurred this evening. Lane continues to be steered toward the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of Lane. The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast through the next 48 hours. This more closely follows the latest consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane continues to approach the Main Hawaiian Islands, so there is no reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the islands, Lane is forecast to come increasingly under the influence of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north. This will produce considerably worse conditions over the islands. Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts are expected in the Hawaiian Islands.

Our intensity forecast shows some weakening, but continues to trend on the high side of the intensity guidance through 72 hours owing to how organized Lane’s core has been in recent days. Note that the CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content along the latest forecast track continues to show very high values during the next 24 to 36 hours, so this will likely help maintain the intensity longer than might be expected with such high shear. By early next week, it is possible that Lane will not survive the shear, and may become a remnant low by day 5.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane’s center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.

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