EDITOR’S NOTE: This is an archive post of KHON2’s ongoing Hurricane Lane coverage. Click here to view the most recent update.
Lane has now weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
As of 2 p.m., the storm has also slowed to a “crawl,” moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph.
Lane’s center is expected to remain close to central Hawaiian islands today and tonight.
A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday with an increase in forward speed.
- 19.6N 157.8W
- ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
- ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Oahu and Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should already be complete.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of of Maui County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Kauai starting Saturday.
RAINFALL: Rain bands from Lane will continue to affect the main Hawaiian Islands with excessive rainfall possible into the weekend. These rains could lead to additional major flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts up to 40 inches are possible, mainly on the windward side of the Big Island where over 30 inches of rain has already fallen in some areas.
SURF: Large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend. These swells will produce high and possibly damaging surf along exposed south shorelines today through Saturday. In addition, a prolonged period of high surf may lead to significant coastal erosion.
Related Story: Ready for Disaster
Lane continues to struggle against 30 to 40 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by the UW-CIMSS shear analysis. The CDO continues to be very asymmetric and elliptical. Radar, lightning data, and 1645z Windsat pass indicated that the active convection has been shunted to the northwest through north of the low level circulation center, indicating that the core of the tropical cyclone is getting torn apart by the shear. Subjective current intensity estimates were unanimous at 5.0, and CIMSS-ADT had 5.1. The initial intensity was lowered to 90 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate a rather uncertain 360/4. The changes to Lane’s structure make the near term track forecast very difficult, as the steering layer will be rapidly evolving in the short term. The proximity to island terrain makes the steering flow even more complex, at least until the vortex completely seperates from the persistent convection as a shallow low level circulation. Until then, the motion is likely to be somewhat slow and erratic. The reliable track guidance suggests a slow north or north-northeastward drift for the next 12 hours, followed by an abrupt shift toward the west at some point afterward. The consensus models show a general westward motion from 24 through 96 hours, then turning more toward the northwest. The only significant change to the track forecast during this time was to slow Lane’s forward motion. If anything is left of Lane between 96 and 120 hours, the low level circulation may gain latitude and try to merge with a large upper low over the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.
As long as Lane can maintain central deep convection, the weakening trend will remain more gradual. More rapid weakening will commence within 12 to 24 hours, once the convection is no longer able to remain anchored to the low level circulation center. All of the guidance indicates rather rapid weakening in the near term, and our forecast agrees though is at the high end of the guidance in deference to Lane’s persistent core. Although the current forecast retains Lane as a tropical cyclone through 5 days, it’s very possible that Lane will not last that long as the low level circulation crosses underneath a band of very strong wind shear.
1. One should not interpret the forecast westward turn south of the islands as a lower threat to the islands. If Lane retains central core convection longer than anticipated, the westward turn would happen later, which could bring hurricane conditions to Maui County or Oahu. This solution is still plausible at this time. Regardless of whether Lane makes landfall, severe impacts are still possible and the effects can extend far to the north and east of the center of Lane.
2. Lane will remain dangerously close to the central Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane today into tonight bringing damaging winds to some areas. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings.
3. The slow movement of Lane greatly increases the threat for prolonged heavy rainfall. This is expected to lead to major flash flooding and landslides in some areas.
4. Life-threatening and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period of damaging surf. The prolonged period of large surf will also likely produce severe beach erosion.