Hurricane Lane update: Aug. 22, 2018 at 11 a.m. HST

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EDITOR’S NOTE: This is an archive post of KHON2’s ongoing Hurricane Lane coverage.

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DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1100 AM HST (1100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 155.9 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected today followed by a more northward motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the west is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through Saturday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts.  Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).

SUMMARY INFORMATION

LOCATION:

  • 15.5N 155.9W
  • ABOUT 285 MI…455 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
  • ABOUT 420 MI…680 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…935 MB…27.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and Hawaii County.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Kauai and Oahu.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning late tonight into early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainbands from Hurricane Lane will begin moving ashore on the Puna and Kau districts over the next hour or two. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late today into the weekend, would could lead to major flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with localized amounts in excess of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands, beginning this morning on the Big Island, spreading across the remainder of the island chain on today. These swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


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Lane continues to be a very impressive hurricane. As of the 1800 UTC analysis time, the cloud pattern had improved over the last several hours with clearing and warming in the eye, and convection becoming more symmetric around the eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB were unanimous at 6.5, and CIMSS-ADT had 6.3. A 1613z SSMIS pass showed the inner core remains very well defined, and there has been a considerable amount of lightning in the eyewall over the past several hours. In deference to the recent trends, we elected to maintain Lane at 135 kt for this advisory. Since the analysis time, the eye has cooled again somewhat and deep convection around the center has become a little more asymmetric.

The initial motion has slowed a bit and is now 295/7. Lane continues to be steered toward the west-northwest by a deep layer ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. By 36 hours, the ridge is expected begin building to the southeast and south of Lane, which will begin to impart a more northward motion through at least 48 hours. By 72 hours, the track guidance begins to show a leftward turn, as the low level circulation of Lane decouples in the face of 35 to 40 kt of shear. Exactly when this critical turn will happen is very difficult to forecast, so confidence in this portion of the track is unfortunately rather low. However, our most reliable global models, the ECMWF and GFS, suggest this may happen a little later than previously forecast. Thus, the track forecast has been shifted to the northeast between 48 and 72 hours to be in better agreement with the global models. 

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that Lane is located within an area of moderate southwesterly shear. The tropical cyclone is expected to begin moving under increasing shear in the coming days 
which is expected to start a long-awaited weakenening trend. Around 72 hours or so, the shear is expected to weaken the core of the tropical cyclone enough to initiate more rapid weakening that is 
shown for the remainder of the forecast period. Our intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the ECMWF. 

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane tomorrow through Saturday, potentially bringing damaging winds. As Lane will be slow-moving as it nears the islands, prolonged heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be possible. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines, along with localized storm surge.

2. As Lane approaches the islands from the southeast, initial impacts will be felt on the Big Island and Maui County, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Impacts on Kauai County and Oahu are also possible, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect there.

3. Do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity for Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Life threatening impacts can extend well away from the center of a hurricane.

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