Trade wind weather will prevail across the islands through the day Sunday as high pressure resides far northeast of the islands.
Tropical Cyclone Flossie will approach from the east Sunday night and could bring unsettled weather and muggy conditions across the state next week.
Trade winds will fill in during the middle or late next week.
Sunday night the weather focus will shift to Tropical Storm Flossie which is currently about 700 miles east of the Hawaii Island and moving to the west northwest.
The latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory shows the center of Flossie passing within 150 to 200 miles of the islands Monday and Tuesday as a Tropical Depression.
Remember that impacts can be felt well outside of the center of the storm and if the eventual track were to be along the southern end of the error cone, the impacts to the any of the islands around the state would be greater.
At a minimum, we should begin to see an increase in rain associated with Flossie beginning on Sunday night for windward Maui and Hawaii Island spreading westward on Monday.
Although confidence is low at this point, both the GFS and ECMWF show the greatest impact rain- wise to be from Monday night through Wednesday morning along Flossie’s trailing band over Maui County and Oahu as the storm makes the turn northwestward.
Wind impacts to Hawaii are even less certain.
Flossie is expected to lift northwestward Tuesday night and Wednesday moving away from the Hawaiian Islands, temporarily cutting off the trade winds over the smaller islands resulting in muggy conditions through the first half of next week.
Dew points in the low to mid 70s with little wind flow after Flossie passes by.
Hawaii Island will still maintain somewhat breezy southeast winds beginning Tuesday as the ridge axis will be positioned right over them.
Weak high pressure will fill in northeast of the islands around Wednesday or Thursday and bring a return to the trade wind weather.