Warm, muggy weather with weak trade winds will continue through much of the new week. Interior clouds and showers will increase during the afternoons as onshore sea breezes develop across leeward sections.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over 600 miles northeast of Honolulu. This low is moving to the east northeast at 15 mph. At the surface, a ridge is located northwest of the state, with a weak trough near the islands. 00Z soundings from Hilo and Lihue show continued mid-level warming, with up to a 5C increase between 650mb and 400m over the past 24 hours. There is also a weak inversions around 11kft at Lihue and 14kft, with a weak low-level inversion near 5kft at Hilo. However overall the soundings remain unstable. Precipitable waters range from 1.45 inches at Lihue to 1.58 inches at Hilo, in part because of greater low-level moisture depth. Drier air is present in the Hilo sounding above 14kft, while the Lihue sounding is relatively moist through 9kft.
The atmosphere has stabilized somewhat since yesterday as the upper low continues to track away from the islands. However, the 00Z Lihue sounding remains unstable, with a mixed layer cape over 2kj/kg from an unmodified sounding. However, echo tops with the showers that have developed across all the islands this afternoon have stayed below 25kft, a sign that the mid-level inversion is acting as a cap. Showers will start to weaken with loss of daytime heating. Given how long they lingered last night, have held onto higher pops through much of the evening.
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