Inouye weighs in on Akaka's race, funding for 2012

Akaka has said he intends to run for reelection, but the latest comments from Sen. Dan. Inouye have fueled speculation about how serious or even how funded Akaka's bid will be, and who else might be in line for the job.

Last year Akaka announced on KHON2 his intentions for the job next year when he'll be 88 years old: "God willing, I plan to run again in 2012," Akaka said last April.

But since then, newspaper columns and letters and even national political analysts are mulling one question more often lately -- will or should Akaka retire instead?

Here's how Sen. Dan Inouye answered that question last night on PBS Island Insights: "If you're talking about age, you're talking about me also. As to our service to our nation he's done well… I have supported him all along, and if he should decide to run. I will support him, but now circumstances have changed. In the last election I was able to concentrate fully on Senator Akaka. But now I am president pro tem, I'm chairman of the Appropriations Committee and I'm a member of the leadership council, and as such they expect me as one of the leaders of the Senate to help all Democrats, not just one, and I've been doing that even during my own reelection time. In the last election 2006 when Danny Akaka ran, I was able to help him in six figures. This time I doubt that."

He noted that Akaka has not had fundraisers and has a low balance in his election account.

"In the usual situation when someone is seeking reelection, fundraising begins about four years before election time," Inouye said, "and two years before is intense. By the time a year before election comes along, he's fully funded. I've also noted that he (Akaka) has not had fundraisers, and according to the disclosure laws whatever he has is less than $100,000. I'd say you'd better be prepared to have at least $3 million."

Cook Political Report analyst Jennifer Duffy in Washington is among those watching the race and the retirement question. She told KHON2 after seeing the latest interview: "It almost seems that he is frustrated with Akaka for not learning the lessons of 2006 and preparing better for 2012. It also is apparent that he is not convinced that Akaka will run."

Asked whether because of a retirement, a primary challenge or eventual succession who would be strong contenders, Inouye listed in this order: Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz, Rep. Mazie Hirono, Gov. Neil Abercrombie and Mufi Hannemann. Asked about former Congressman Ed Case, Inouye said him, too, and added Veterans Affairs Department Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth.

"She's a fellow graduate of McKinley, graduate of the University of Hawaii, so she has legitimate footprints in Hawaii," Inouye said.

"Our problem I think at this juncture is to try to keep it down to a workable number," Inouye added. "Can you imagine if all six of them or seven of them ran? They would kill each other."

The comments got attention all across the state and the political aisle.

"It really seemed to me like Inouye was somewhat throwing Akaka under the bus and looking to put somebody else in to run and wasn't sure if he was going to and didn't give any definitive statement," said Hawaii Republican Party Executive Director Dylan Nonaka, "so it definitely raised a few eyebrows. To show the apprehension definitely was a difference in message that we've seen normally. There was a lot of innuendo and not a clear message of what he wanted, so I think we're going to have to wait and see what comes out of this. I'm sure there were a lot of phone calls. I even got some e-mails 5 minutes after the show aired last night from Republicans saying, 'Did you see what happened? Did you see what Inouye said? So I'm sure it definitely wasn't just on our side."

It had Democrats talking, too.

"I think Sen. Inouye made the same observation that many have made, which is that although Sen. Akaka says he's running again, that he really doesn't seem to be campaigning for reelection, so there's naturally a question about what he's really up to," Case said.

The race will be closely watched nationally because the balance of political power in Washington could hinge on whether Hawaii and one or two other states go Democrat or Republican.

"I don't think there's any doubt that Gov. Lingle is running for the U.S. Senate next year. I don't think there's any doubt that she would beat a number of the people that he mentioned," Case said. "I'm assuming that the Democrats both nationally and locally are doing their polling right now, and they're running the various people against Lingle -- including Sen. Akaka -- and asking themselves the tough question: Who can prevail?"

Analyst Duffy told KHON2, "While I have ranked the race as solid Democratic today, that rating would certainly change if Lingle runs."

Neither Lingle nor anyone on Inouye's list has said they'll run for Senate, though many said they'd think about it, while others said they're focused on their current offices. Many said they're waiting to see what Akaka decides - and feel he should have the time and freedom to make that decision on his own.

"If you know that you're not going to run again you should certainly say so," Case said. "But I don't think that anybody should be forced into a corner in terms of making that decision. It's a very tough decision. Senator Akaka has served very long and very well and evidently he wants to run again, and in think he is entitled to the time that he needs to make that decision."

"I don't think that decision necessarily has to be made this year," Case added, "But I think circumstances are going to overcome us on this and I think national attention to the race and circumstances here locally may well result in a decision earlier than we think."

"To run a strong credible statewide campaign, you really need 18 months to two years to get it done, so we're in the timeframe now where a decision has to be made," Nonaka said. "I think by the summer if people haven't made a firm decision, it's doing to be difficult to mount a strong campaign for the following November."

Some say age may be a factor in this tough election.

"We all love and respect Sen. Akaka but being 88-years-old (in 2012), it's hard to run a race. In today's world a political campaign is a 24-7 experience, and I think that's something that everyone's got to take into account, and that's why all this speculation has occurred," Nonaka said. "And the fundraising is a big part of it, only having $66,000 on hand at this point as an incumbent, when you can easily raise money in D.C. from PACs and special interest groups. It just doesn't make sense why he wouldn't have done more fundraising by now. If he had $1.5 million, $2 million in the bank right now, which is possible as an incumbent, people would second-guess whether or not it would be a good idea to challenge him."

Republicans think they can raise the kind of money it will take to run a Senate race that has estimates ranging from $3 million to $6 million or more per candidate.

"We would be looking to field one strong candidate so they could save their money for the general and we could put all our money behind one person and make them as strong as possible," Nonaka said, adding, however, that the GOP has a bench of its own.

"Obviously Gov. Lingle has shown an ability to raise a lot of money," Nonaka said. "Charles Djou also showed an ability to raise a lot of money in a short amount of time. So I think the Republican base definitely will be excited about that race in 2012 and we won't let it go easily. We have folks like Rep. Kym Pine who is very popular, Rep. Aaron Johanson who is very talented, very intelligent. And definitely you can't count out Duke Aiona who just ran a very strong race and has a lot of name recognition, and I think Lynn Finnegan is far from being over in terms of her political career."

Akaka's spokesperson declined comment for this story.

Hawaii Democratic Party Chairman Dante Carpenter said, "Sen. Akaka is indeed a candidate in 2012, and unless he tells the party otherwise, we are committed to support his candidacy."

A Facebook posting on Sen. Inouye's page earlier this week said, "For decades Sen. Akaka and I have fought side by side in the U.S. Senate to help meet the needs and address the concerns of the people of Hawaii and our great nation. He is a vital partner in the Senate, a tireless advocate for Hawaii and a valuable ambassador of Aloha. I strongly support his candidacy and will do everything I can to ensure that we continue our work together on behalf of Hawaii's working families."